US Election Predictions According to Social Media
In keeping with the spirit of the upcoming US Election, Sendible have decided to put our social media monitoring tool to the test. We’ve up monitoring terms for the two Presidential candidate Starting from the first Presidential debate (October 3, 2012). The Social Media Monitoring Tool looks through blogs, microblogs, social networks and even comments on sites such as YouTube. Our Sentiment Analysis is a unique algorithm which scores how positive or negative each of the individual posts are by looking out for key words and phrases.
The New York Times have highlighted nine swing states based on an assessment of how states may vote, based on polling, previous election results and the political geography in each state. These nine are the crucial states which may decide If President Barack Obama returns for another four years or if Republican candidate Mitt Romney takes office.
Sendible have also geo-targeted terms in Social Media to each specific Swing state giving some indication what is being said about each of the candidate in each battleground state.
If those sentiments have any bearing on how states actually vote, it would give a President Barack Obama a definitive win of 294 Electoral Votes compared to Mitt Romney’s 244 Electoral votes. Of course it’s all to play for with strong performances from each of the candidates during the final Presidential debate.
07/11/2012 Update: Barack Obama WINS a Second term. Let’s take a look at the accuracy of our predictions. We did predict the outcome successfully however Swings States of Colorado and Florida swung in favour of the incumbent. Favourability readings were taken during the Presidential debates so it does denote the impact of those debates had in this Election.